http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/24/real_estate/home_prices_third/index.htm

Home prices climb for 2nd straight quarter

S&P/Case-Shiller index shows prices up 3.1% from 3 months earlier, but down nearly 9% from a year ago.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
November 24, 2009: 9:51 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Home prices rose for the second consecutive quarter but remained nearly 9% lower than a year earlier, according to a housing market report issued Tuesday.

Prices nationwide rose 3.1% in the three months ended Sept. 30, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a closely watched gauge of housing market direction. That followed a similar 3.1% rise during the second quarter of the year.

Prices were still below a year ago, however, down 8.9% compared with the third quarter of 2008. Nevertheless, that’s an improvement from the double-digit price decreases the index had been reporting; the second quarter year-over-year decline was 14.7%. Prices had dropped 19% year-over-year during the first quarter of 2009.

“We have seen broad improvement in home prices for most of the past six months,” says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index posted its fifth monthly increase in a row in September, rising 0.3% from August levels.

The worst performing market continued to be Las Vegas, where prices have dropped for 37 consecutive months. They’re now 55.4% off their highs.

Midwestern cities staged a comeback in September, with Minneapolis and Detroit prices each gaining 1.8%, the most of any of the 20-cities covered. Chicago prices jumped 1.2%; San Francisco climbed 1.3%; and Los Angeles and Phoenix both rose 0.8%.

Stopping the home price slide is an important factor in any economic recovery. Falling prices increase the number of “underwater” homeowners, those who owe more on their mortgage balances than their homes are worth.

Underwater mortgage borrowers are much more likely to lose their homes to foreclosure. Indeed, it’s a crucial factor in whether people lose their homes or not, as Mark Goldman, a San Diego State University real estate professor pointed out.

“If they have a home worth $300,000 and they owe $250,000 and can’t pay their mortgage, they’ll just sell the house,” he said.

It’s when they have a house worth $200,000 and they owe $250,000 that these people default, because the sale of the house would not pay their whole debt.

A report from First American CoreLogic released Tuesday, revealed that nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers are underwater. That, as well as the ongoing foreclosure problem, has contributed to doubt about the staying power of the recent price trend.

“I think it’s temporary,” said Pat Newport, a real estate analyst with IHS Global Insight.”I can’t see home prices stabilizing as long as we have that problem.”

According to Newport, foreclosures could worsen over the next several months as many toxic loans go through resets, making them much less affordable for their borrowers.

A significant contributor to the improvements in the housing markets have been programs such as the tax credit for first-time homebuyers, according to Bob Walters, the chief economist for Quicken Loans.

“[But] the real driver in all of this — from home sales to home pricing appreciation — has been the protracted run of favorable mortgage rates,” he said. “It will be interesting to see how home prices react when we see rates begin to increase, as they are sure to do over time.”

• CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Is now a good time to buy real estate? The size of your paycheck likely will play a big part in how you answer that question.
• While many average Americans are skittish about the housing market, some of the country’s richest citizens see the current conditions as perfect for buying, according to the Annual Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America, released on Tuesday by the American Express Publishing Corp. and Harrison Group, a market research and consulting firm.
• Seventy-seven percent of the wealthiest people surveyed think real estate presents a “real opportunity” right now. In the survey, “wealthy” meant having discretionary household income of more than $500,000 a year.
• And these high-income earners are putting their money where their mouths are: 40% said they are in the market to acquire real estate this year.
• The survey was originally conducted late last year with 1,800 people representing the wealthiest 10% of American households. But the more recent figures are from a follow-up survey with a smaller sample of the original participants, conducted last week to ensure the study reflects rapidly changing market dynamics.
• Other survey participants are “upper middle class,” with incomes between $100,000 and $149,000; “affluent,” with incomes between $150,000 and $249,000; and “super affluent,” with incomes between $250,000 and $499,000.
• The wealthy aren’t alone in their belief that the real-estate market represents a buying opportunity: 67% of the upper-middle-class participants also agreed with that statement, as did 72% of the affluent and the super-affluent.
• “There are bargains out there … severe price pressure across the board,” said Jim Taylor, vice-chairman of Harrison Group. That said, at the very top of the market, there is an abundance of buyers and that is holding prices steady at that level, he added.
• Still, the wealthiest were the most committed to buying soon. Only 17% of upper-middle-class participants said they were in the market to buy real estate this year, while 24% of the affluent and 26% of the super-affluent said the same.
• Home sweet second — and third — home
• Forty-one percent of those in the wealthy category said owning a second home was “almost a requirement” for people of their economic means, according to the survey.
• Thirty-three percent of the wealthiest who said they intended to buy this year are now in the market for a second home, and 25% said they are in the market for a finished third home, according to the survey.

“They’re treating it as a portfolio play, rather than a recreation play,” Taylor said. “They’ve moved off the notion that it’s just pleasure real estate,” he said, adding that the wealthy use second homes to help balance their overall investment portfolio.

Recession now, but rebound coming
Seventy-nine percent of the survey’s respondents said the country is in a recession now, but 88% said they are confident that property values will eventually rebound. Still, 18% of respondents said the equity in their home is worth less than what they owe.

Many respondents expressed significant anxiety over the recession, Taylor said. That was especially true of the upper-middle-class and affluent groups, he said.

But not everyone is worried about their own financial stability. Taylor said he expects the number of millionaires to increase by another 6% this year.

Passion for home improvement
A separate survey of senior-level executives found that high earners often are passionate about improving their homes — even more passionate than they are about spending time on the golf course.

Thirty-nine percent of 552 high-level executives said they were passionate about home improvement, compared with 32% who said the same about playing golf, according to a recent survey by Doremus, a business communications agency.

“Home is seen by most as a respite from the world, a place where people feel they can be themselves.” said Hope Picker, director of research for Doremus, in a news release. “And high-powered senior-level executives are no exception.

“Golf is a game, but it’s another form of competition and, in many cases, it’s also a surrogate conference room where business is conducted and deals made. But home, even for many high-level professionals, is a safe haven. In addition, home-improvement projects tend to be both tangible and finite, in contrast to much of their work.”

The company recommended that marketers interested in reaching these high-net-worth individuals should target them through publications, broadcasts and online sites that feature decorating and improvement ideas for the home and garden.

Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago.